The Market has been Choppy-What's being next?

The global markets ended with the zigzag movement with the increased volatility for a week compared to its past. Despite the announcement of there is no locking down for a second time, the recent surge in the new Covid-19 cases is a way higher than the expected number causes the uncertainty in free reopening the economy kept the market choppy.  

Oil ended with the weekly loss of 3.17%, followed by the sharp daily declined 5.85% on Wednesday. The uncertainty in the equity market keeps gold remains bullish.

The NIFTY-50 Index remains bullish and outperformed within the APAC region. The other indices from the APAC region show the sideways movement.  For the European market, the previous week’s gains around 3% being reversed by this week.

We expect the market can show the whipsaw movement in coming days considering the consistency in surging Covid-19 virus new cases and the announcement of travelling to the US cities will be subject to a 14-day quarantine. However, the long-term economic recovery is expected to grow in a steady manner

Sentiment Analysis

We are using the news and social media sentiment score to assess the current sentiment trend in the global Indices.  News sentiment is broadly used as a leading indicator to forecast/predicts the financial markets.

The below figures illustrate the news sentiment trend computed by 1000s of news from the web and social media content for the past week for the major global Indexes. The introduced new restrictions and 14-day quarantine for travellers entering to US cities, economic data shows the US GDP shrank to 5% for the March quarter, New surge in Coid-19 cases globally and India-China border tension are the key news for the week.

Major Indices from US market reversed its news sentiment trend to a negative direction from its past. The rest of the global Indices, including APAC and Euro region remains Neutral due to the uncertainty in controlling the new corona virus cases worldwide. However, the KOSPI-100 Index showing the Negative sentiment trend and China Index is in mild uptrend sentiment.

Note: The sentiment indicator can be used as an additional overlay for your existing models to improve the performance further.

Buy & Sell Signals

The below table showing the buy/sell signals generated based on InfoTrie’s proprietary Investment/ Trading models. These models are developed with the combination of technical, fundamental, quantitative techniques and primarily the news-based sentiment score as an additional overlay.

I have tabulated the random signals from several InfoTrie’s Trading/Investment models.

The news sentiment score provides significant improvement, significant “Alpha” compared to the traditional investment/trading models.

 For more details on the analysis, accessing complete tear sheets or white paper for the models, subscription details for News Sentiment data and other consulting works please contact us with the information provided below.

InfoTrie Financial Solutions Pte Ltd, Singapore

Sureshkumar Ramani +65 93376035

Frederic GEORJON +33 (0)6 1304 0600


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