Global stocks Rallied! But Emotions Remain Mixed!

U.S

Global stocks rallied. The major U.S. stock indexes made gains of 6 % to 8 % this week to make up for the previous two weeks when they fell. This rise in the stock market was caused by a number of things, including falling oil prices, news that Russia had not defaulted on its sovereign debt, and the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. Gains were seen across all of the major indexes, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 leading the way.

First time since 2018: The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since then, following through on market expectations to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. If you looked at the Cboe Volatility Index on Friday, it was down to about 24, down from about 37 on March 8. For the last week, the so-called VIX dropped about 22%.

Europe

Shares in Europe rose for a second week in a row because there was some hope that talks between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a peace plan. China’s announcement that it would take steps to help the economy and financial markets also seemed to make people feel better. Over the course of a week, the top European benchmark indices rose more than 5%.

APAC

Most of the APAC benchmark indices rose a lot this week, by about 2% to 7%. Shanghai Composite lost more than -1.77 % on the week. Stocks of Chinese companies fell a lot because of fears about COVID-19 outbreaks and rising geopolitical tensions. After Chinese authorities made moves to restore investor confidence, some of the losses were reversed.

Japan’s stock markets rose for five straight days, with the Nikkei-225 Index ending the week 6.62 % higher. As the global shift to tighter monetary policy continued, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its dovish stance, which was good news for people’s mood. The government also announced that it was going to lift all of the quasi-states of emergency because coronavirus infections were going down each day.

Underlying weekly market movement

Underlying-Weekly-3-21-2022-Global stocks Rallied

Despite the fact that the price of crude oil has stayed above the level seen immediately before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of crude oil has declined by more than 15 % since its previous peak on March 8. The price of U.S. oil was trading around $105 per barrel, down from as low as $94 per barrel just two days earlier.

Sentiment Analysis

Global stocks rallied. In general, this week has been a little mixed. The top U.S. benchmark indexes are still pessimistic in terms of how people feel.

This week, the feelings for the top European indexes are still a little mixed. People aren’t happy with the German stock index Dax-30. People who don’t agree with them stay that way.

People aren’t sure how they feel about the APAC benchmark indexes, so they’re mixed up in a bag. For the week, the indexes Kospi-100 and HIS-50 are both down a lot. However, the indexes of the Nifty-50, the Nikkei-225, and the ASX-200 all go up.

Sentiment Trend

Sentiment Trend Chart-3-21-2022-Global stocks Rallied

The following important economic indicators and earnings reports, which can alter current sentiment, may determine the market this week, PMI index and building permits. (https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar)

Sentiment Score

Sentiment Values-3-21-2022-Global stocks Rallied

Note: The news sentiment data is the most useful additional overlay for your existing models to improve the performance further.

Buy & Sell Signals

The buy/sell signals that InfoTrie’s own Investment/Trading models make are shown in the table below. These models were built using technical, foundational, and quantitative methods. The news-based sentiment score was added as a second layer.

I looked at the random signals from different trading and investing models at InfoTrie.

Buy Sell-3-21-2022-Global stocks Rallied

The news sentiment score provides a significant improvement, significant “Alpha” compared to the traditional investment/trading models.

 For more details on the analysis, accessing complete tear sheets or white paper for the models, subscription details for News Sentiment data and other consulting works, don’t hesitate to contact us with the information provided below.        

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